quarta-feira, 26 de novembro de 2008


O site “Conversa Afiada”, do jornalista Paulo Henrique Amorim, ontem publicou:


Diz a ultima edição da Economist, com as previsões para 2009:

A transferência do poder no mundo para países o Brazil, a Rússia, a Índia e a China vai se acelerar. E eles esperam influir mais na hora de decidir como o mundo vai funcionar”:

Vejamos o texto da revista semanal inglesa, de 19/11/2008:

From Daniel Franklin, editor, The World in 2009

"Anyone hoping for a period of calm after the turbulence of the past year will be disappointed. For the economy and for business, as well as for politics, 2009 promises to be a year of bracing adjustment to a changed world.

In politics the most obvious change will be in the White House: in January Barack Obama will become America’s first black president. This is a remarkable achievement—and a remarkable opportunity. Abroad, President Obama can restore America’s standing after the damage of the Bush years. At home, together with a Democratic Congress, he has a chance to bring about bold reform, notably in America’s health-care system.

Indeed, such are the expectations of Mr Obama that one of his biggest challenges will be to manage them so that he does not disappoint too much.

Beyond America, too, it will be a busy year for politics, with a large chunk of humanity involved in elections. India, the world’s biggest democracy, holds a general election. So does Germany, Europe’s largest economy, and in June the whole 27-country European Union votes in elections for the European Parliament.

There will be presidential polls in Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim country, and in pivotal places such as South Africa, Iran and Afghanistan. Voters everywhere will focus mainly on local issues, as they always do, but in the background will lurk broader arguments over the changing attitudes to markets and the role of the state.

That is because the aftershocks of the financial crisis of 2008 will be rumbling on.

After an extraordinary boom, in which the world’s GDP rose year after year by between 4% and 5%, global growth will slide below 3%. The rich economies face recession, with all that comes with it: bankruptcies, belt-tightening and rising unemployment. Within companies, cherished perks will disappear and power will ebb from visionary bosses to the chief financial officer. Those with cash and cunning will find opportunities to buy competitors on the cheap.

In the emerging world, meanwhile, growth will be less spectacular than before, but in many countries it will—with luck—remain relatively robust. So the shift in global power to places such as Brazil, Russia, India and China will, if anything, quicken. These countries will expect a bigger say in how the world is run.

The shift in power to places such as Brazil, Russia, India and China will quicken. These countries will expect a bigger say in how the world is run

One aspect of running the world will draw increasing attention as the year progresses: how to tackle global warming. At the end of 2009 a gathering in Copenhagen will attempt to reach a post-Kyoto agreement to cut greenhouse emissions.

It may well fail to do so, but climate change and related issues (such as carbon trading, water shortages and alternative energy) will loom large in 2009, which is why we publish a special section on the environment.

If all this sounds a bit earnest, don’t worry: there will be plenty of fun in 2009 as well. Dubai will open the world’s tallest building, China the world’s biggest Ferris wheel. Barbie and Astérix will celebrate their 50th birthdays. Africans will enjoy a new fascination with maps, thanks to the internet, while soaring numbers of twitchers in China will indulge in a new fascination with birds. Scientists will map the brain as well as search for Earth-like planets—in what will be the International Year of Astronomy, 400 years after Galileo first peered through a telescope.

As always this volume is full of predictions, a few of which may actually prove right. This time we’ve even included several things we think probably won’t happen, though they just might: forecasts whose chance of coming true falls roughly between 5% and 20%. Might 2009 see a peace deal between Israel and Syria, a cure for cancer or the abdication of Queen Elizabeth II? Probably not. But you read it here first.”

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